Everything is a bet

How confident are you that you could drive from your house to the nearest airport in under two hours, say, tonight?

You might be tempted to answer as a certainty: yes, or no.

But think a moment: If you say "no way," are you sure it’s literally impossible? What if you got insanely lucky with traffic and drove like a demon? Couldn't it be something greater than zero percent?

And if you say, "yes, absolutely," are you really that sure? Car trouble, traffic, accidents, family emergencies — a dozen things could slow you down. Couldn't it be something less than 100 percent?

Somewhere between zero and 100, there's a number that matches your level of confidence.

Why does this matter?

Because everything you do is a bet.

To attain a certain outcome, you'll make an investment of time, money, and mental energy.

And you might still fail.

This means that there are no sure bets. You must take on some risk.

So, how much risk is tolerable? Only you can decide.

Back to the airport:

If you're 50% sure you can make the drive in two hours, would you be okay with that? Or would you invest more time?

Is 80% certainty enough? Do you need 90%?

Here's the thing:

Your level of comfort with risk — your risk tolerance — is a real thing. It can actally be measured. And your organization’s risk tolerance is real and measurable, too.

Pay attention to that comfort level. Get a feel for your risk tolerance - and your organization's.

It will help you in making honest decisions that don't pretend to be 100% certain, and in making rational decisions about whether and how to proceed toward your goals.

You can’t win every bet.

But you can learn to measure your certainty and to move forward only when the risk is tolerable.

All the best,
A.