Reasonable estimations for reasonable goals

Yesterday I mentioned how an expected 6% increase is leading one organization to implement new features in their client communications.

In that email I mentioned, "6% seems very doable". Honestly, that's a claim worth challenging.

Their goal is to increase their rate of "client services appointments kept" from 80% to 85% — an increase of just 6.25%.

They believe it's “quite doable.” But is it really? Remember, if you can't justify your assessment, it just might be hot air — based on anything from wild guessing to wishful thinking.

In their case, they've gathered useful measurements, used some simple math, made a few reasonable assumptions, and honestly acknowledged their confidence (or lack of confidence) in each those assumptions and estimates.

For example:

• Among clients who've missed an appointment, and whom they've been able to ask, the number one reason given — by far — is simply, "Darn it, I forgot."

• Almost all of these clients have already indicated they'll receive text messages on other matters.

This gives them some reliable information to work with.

It doesn't mean nobody will ever miss an appointment again, but it's pretty reasonable to guess that at least 25% of those missed appointments (one quarter of the 20%) could have been prevented with timely SMS reminders.

And that's enough to get them from 80% to 85%.

Here's the thing:

There's no such thing as a silver bullet. No one solution is guaranteed to fix everything.

And projections like these will necessarily contain some uncertainty.

But by gathering some information and quantifying its reliability, it is indeed possible to make reasonable estimations, even when not everything is 100% certain.

If you wait for 100% certainty, you'll never begin. On the other hand, if you never bother to estimate the likelihood of success or failure, you'll also never be able to target reasonable goals.

All the best,
A.