Dealing with uncertainty
In work and life, very little is certain. But we don't let that stop us.
Routine helps to remove most of the uncertainty, and we build little margins into our schedule to accommodate what's left.
But what happens when you're trying something that's actually new to you?
Or when you're trying to decide whether that new task is worth the effort?
That's when you have to estimate. You estimate the effort; you estimate the likelihood of a positive outcome; and then you make a decision.
Here's the thing:
Estimates, like everything else in life, are uncertain.
The question most people skip is: How uncertain is this estimate?
Because uncertainty, like everything else in life, can be measured. (Yes, everything.)
You can't be 100% certain whether you’ll be late to work tomorrow. But compare these two choices:
How likely is it that you'll be less than 5 minutes late to work tomorrow?
And how likely is it that you'll be more than 3 hours late to work tomorrow?
If you think one of those is less likely than the other, then you’ve just measured uncertainty.
You probably haven't measured it very precisely, and you probably don't have to.
But when you're making important decisions, more precise measurement of uncertainty becomes incredibly useful.
And there are techniques for that.
More on that tomorrow.
All the best,
A.