Why measure uncertainty

Uncertainty makes life risky. And resources are limited.

What if you could measure uncertainty?

• Would it help you quantify risk, so you could make more informed decisions?

• Would it help you to identify areas where gathering a little more information would be worth your effort to reduce the uncertainty?

• Would it help you to know when you've reduced the uncertainty to an acceptable level?

Of course it would.

It would also

• Help you develop, over time, a sense of what “acceptable levels of uncertainty” means for you.

• Allow you to compare the uncertainty of one potential action plan over another.

• Increase your chances of achieving your intended outcomes.

Imagine this scenario:

You've got a specific goal you want to achieve, and you have two different ideas about how to get there.

For each potential plan, you have to estimate the both cost and the likelihood that the plan will work.

Neither the cost nor the success are a certainty.

So, do you just close your eyes and guess?

You could. But that's not a very informed plan.

If you could measure the uncertainty — or even gather more information to measurably reduce the uncertainty — you could make a well-informed decision: either to pick one of the two plans, or to shift your focus to another goal.

Here's the thing:

Resources are limited. Decisions are risky. Reducing uncertainty decreases risk.

And measuring uncertainty allows you to plan accordingly.

Wouldn't that make life a little easier?

All the best,
A.