Measuring is hard. Guessing right is harder.

Intuition and common sense can be surprisingly misleading.

Here’s a simple exercise in probabilities that confounds even professional mathematicians. It’s known as “the Monty Hall problem”:

A game show host offers three doors, behind one of which is the big prize. He allows you, the contestant, to choose one door.

He then opens one of the losing doors, so there are now only two unopened doors. Then he asks you if you want to change your selection.

Would switching help you win?

Almost everyone, intuitively and very strongly, believes that it doesn't matter if you switch.

But that's incorrect.

Believe it or not, switching will double your chance of winning.

I didn't believe it either, until I actually tried dozens of trials and measured the results. Then I could at least believe it — and understanding it took even more effort.

Here's the thing:

Cause and effect are not always easy to understand. The obvious answer is not always the right one.

When you're trying to increase constituent engagement, maximize membership retention, increase contributions, or achieve any other business goal, a quick glance at your CRM reports might seem like it would tell you what you need to know.

But does it really?

Intuition and common sense are great tools when you're pressed for time.

But when you want to really understand what's going on, and make reliable plans that have a good chance of achieving desired outcomes, there's no substitute for careful measurement of real-world cause and effect.

All the best,
A.

P.S. If you’re really curious, here’s a short video that explains the Monty Hall Problem.